Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $796 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$796.23
$33.26
85.5¢ → 94.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 allenzzz | Noavg 89.8¢ | $445.31 | $460.95 | +$15.63 | 77% 122-36 (158) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.5¢ | $287.51 | $300.87 | +$18.36 | 36% 14881-26989 (41870) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18.6 | +$0 | 85% 2422-443 (2865) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $13.66 | $13.96 | +$0.3 | 77% 11134-3396 (14530) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $10.4 | $1.85 | -$1.03 | 57% 13150-10021 (23171) |
allenzzzInvested
$445.31
Value
$460.95
PnL
+$15.63
Record
77%
122-36 (158)
Invested
$287.51
Value
$300.87
PnL
+$18.36
Record
36%
14881-26989 (41870)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
2422-443 (2865)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$13.96
PnL
+$0.3
Record
77%
11134-3396 (14530)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$1.03
Record
57%
13150-10021 (23171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.