Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 97¢ · $471 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$471.01
-$89.3
94.4¢ → 96.7¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Yesavg 95¢ | $204.54 | $204.32 | -$0.22 | — |
KL klli27 | Yesavg 93.7¢ | $177.34 | $172.42 | -$4.92 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
 CarCTR | Noavg 6.8¢ | $237.39 | $90.98 | -$84.17 | 69% 1400-641 (2041) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.3¢ | $3.3 | $3.3 | +$0 | 40% 3002-4411 (7413) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.