Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by November 30, 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 67¢ · $483 held · ends Dec 1

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$482.54

Combined PnL

$62.15

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 66.5¢

+62% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$240.56

Total Shares427

Combined PnL+$100.15

No3 traders

Total Value$118.88

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$38

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllie	Yesavg 40.9¢	$194.14	$206.05	+$71.91	50% 953-962 (1915)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$202.14	$123.11	-$17.49	20% 318-1310 (1628)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$52.49	$62.76	+$3.18
└ No leg	Noavg 56.4¢	$75.57	$60.35	-$20.67
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR	Noavg 66¢	$118.08	$80.51	-$37.57	82% 1734-388 (2122)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 41.1¢	$156.15	$34.51	+$28.25	36% 15596-27543 (43139)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$39.41	$31.96	+$0.35	42% 5218-7151 (12369)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$7.19	$6.41	-$0.78	57% 13804-10576 (24380)

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$194.14

Value

$206.05

PnL

+$71.91

Record

50%

953-962 (1915)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$202.14

Value

$123.11

PnL

-$17.49

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Both legs:

Yes$52.4946¢+$3.18

No$75.5756.4¢-$20.67

zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR

Invested

$118.08

Value

$80.51

PnL

-$37.57

Record

82%

1734-388 (2122)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$156.15

Value

$34.51

PnL

+$28.25

Record

36%

15596-27543 (43139)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$39.41

Value

$31.96

PnL

+$0.35

Record

42%

5218-7151 (12369)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.19

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$0.78

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.4%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.