Will Trump meet with Dario Amodei by November 30, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $638 held · ends Dec 1

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$638.42

Combined PnL

$44.03

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 76.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$449.44

Total Shares579

Combined PnL+$53.61

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.98

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$9.58

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllie	Noavg 72¢	$481.1	$371.92	+$40.61	50% 954-964 (1918)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$171.15	$159.01	-$2.74	19% 335-1419 (1754)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.9¢	$128.64	$121.64	-$7.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.5¢	$35.73	$37.37	+$4.35
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Noavg 75¢	$64.52	$77.52	+$13	56% 15322-11880 (27202)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.3¢	$44.39	$26.44	-$5.46	36% 15698-27712 (43410)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$14.8	$3.54	-$4.12	42% 5246-7177 (12423)

smellyEllie

Invested

$481.1

Value

$371.92

PnL

+$40.61

Record

50%

954-964 (1918)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$171.15

Value

$159.01

PnL

-$2.74

Record

19%

335-1419 (1754)

Both legs:

No$128.6480.9¢-$7.1

Yes$35.7322.5¢+$4.35

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Invested

$64.52

Value

$77.52

PnL

+$13

Record

56%

15322-11880 (27202)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.39

Value

$26.44

PnL

-$5.46

Record

36%

15698-27712 (43410)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.8

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$4.12

Record

42%

5246-7177 (12423)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.