Will Trump leave China on November 21?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $333 held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$332.65
-$3.86
99.6¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.7¢ | $159.03 | $157.69 | -$1.34 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $89.72 | $88.96 | -$0.76 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $35.86 | $35.88 | +$0.02 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $28.91 | $28.67 | -$0.25 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.93 | +$0.15 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $3.21 | $1.53 | -$1.68 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
Invested
$159.03
Value
$157.69
PnL
-$1.34
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
balthazar<$100Invested
$89.72
Value
$88.96
PnL
-$0.76
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$35.86
Value
$35.88
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$28.91
Value
$28.67
PnL
-$0.25
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.93
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Invested
$3.21
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$1.68
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.