Will Trump leave China on November 20?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$258.96
-$1.19
87¢ → 88¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 87.9¢ | $140.24 | $140.38 | +$0.14 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $32.74 | $35.59 | +$2.85 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $30.6 | $31.68 | +$1.08 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $25.17 | $25.51 | +$0.34 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $16.8 | $17.6 | +$0.8 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $14.6 | $8.19 | -$6.41 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
Invested
$140.24
Value
$140.38
PnL
+$0.14
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$32.74
Value
$35.59
PnL
+$2.85
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$30.6
Value
$31.68
PnL
+$1.08
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$25.17
Value
$25.51
PnL
+$0.34
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$6.41
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.