Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (84%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trump leave China on November 19?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 17¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$110.35
-$9
Research grade
AvoidNo at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $60.93 | $57.11 | -$3.82 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.9¢ | $23.72 | $26.32 | +$2.61 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $16.2 | $14.85 | -$1.35 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.8¢ | $4.86 | $4.79 | -$0.08 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $8.64 | $4.68 | -$3.96 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $5 | $2.6 | -$2.4 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
Invested
$60.93
Value
$57.11
PnL
-$3.82
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$23.72
Value
$26.32
PnL
+$2.61
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.2
Value
$14.85
PnL
-$1.35
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$0.08
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.64
Value
$4.68
PnL
-$3.96
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$2.4
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.