Will Trump leave China on November 18?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $317 held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$317.31
-$0.63
97.1¢ → 97.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 97.9¢ | $156.25 | $155.13 | -$1.11 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $87.28 | $87.52 | +$0.24 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $34.2 | $35.64 | +$1.44 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $19.8 | +$0.8 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $16.49 | $16.53 | +$0.04 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $4.06 | $2.05 | -$0.97 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.7 | $0.64 | -$1.06 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
Invested
$156.25
Value
$155.13
PnL
-$1.11
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
balthazar<$100Invested
$87.28
Value
$87.52
PnL
+$0.24
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$34.2
Value
$35.64
PnL
+$1.44
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Invested
$16.49
Value
$16.53
PnL
+$0.04
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4.06
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0.97
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$1.06
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.