Will Trump leave China before November 18?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $527 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$526.53
$15.68
96¢ → 99.4¢
+4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 97¢ | $154.42 | $158.84 | +$4.43 | — 5-1 (6) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.7¢ | $159.11 | $158.56 | -$0.55 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $89.73 | $89.46 | -$0.27 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $35.89 | $35.78 | -$0.11 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $18.12 | $30.11 | +$11.99 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $28.91 | $28.83 | -$0.09 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.96 | +$0.04 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
 Udonsan<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.99 | +$0.24 | — 1-0 (1) |
viniiInvested
$154.42
Value
$158.84
PnL
+$4.43
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$159.11
Value
$158.56
PnL
-$0.55
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
balthazar<$100Invested
$89.73
Value
$89.46
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$35.89
Value
$35.78
PnL
-$0.11
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$18.12
Value
$30.11
PnL
+$11.99
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$28.91
Value
$28.83
PnL
-$0.09
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Udonsan<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.24
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.