Will Trump leave China after November 22?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $356 held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$355.78
-$1.36
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.7¢ | $159.04 | $159.2 | +$0.16 | 32% 2879-6243 (9122) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $112.14 | $112.23 | +$0.09 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $35.88 | $35.89 | +$0.01 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $28.91 | $28.94 | +$0.03 | 79% 479-127 (606) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $12.08 | $12.1 | +$0.01 | 46% 461-549 (1010) |
 Dr.mett<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $7.1 | $7.22 | +$0.12 | — 6-1 (7) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.99 | $0.2 | -$1.79 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
Invested
$159.04
Value
$159.2
PnL
+$0.16
Record
32%
2879-6243 (9122)
balthazarInvested
$112.14
Value
$112.23
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$35.88
Value
$35.89
PnL
+$0.01
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
Invested
$28.91
Value
$28.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
79%
479-127 (606)
Invested
$12.08
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
46%
461-549 (1010)
Dr.mett<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
$7.22
PnL
+$0.12
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$1.79
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.