Will Trump issue 20-24 vetoes by December 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.4K
$122.27
82.7¢ → 86¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$117.1 | — 4-15 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $22.5 | $27 | +$4.5 | 41% 3151-4506 (7657) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $25.8 | -$0.3 | 40% 1461-2159 (3620) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.88 | $17.49 | +$1.61 | 56% 48-38 (86) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $11.97 | $11.34 | -$0.63 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
Invested
$2,245.53
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$117.1
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$27
PnL
+$4.5
Record
41%
3151-4506 (7657)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$25.8
PnL
-$0.3
Record
40%
1461-2159 (3620)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$15.88
Value
$17.49
PnL
+$1.61
Record
56%
48-38 (86)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$11.34
PnL
-$0.63
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.