Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trump deport 800-900k people?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $48 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$48
-$10.51
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $24.75 | $24.68 | -$0.07 | 29% 2847-6942 (9789) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.74 | -$0.18 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $13.87 | $3.03 | -$10.84 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.23 | $0.43 | +$0.2 | — |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.39 | $0.39 | +$0.39 | 45% 1830-2273 (4103) |
Invested
$24.75
Value
$24.68
PnL
-$0.07
Record
29%
2847-6942 (9789)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.74
PnL
-$0.18
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$3.03
PnL
-$10.84
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.43
PnL
+$0.2
Record
—
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.39
Record
45%
1830-2273 (4103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.