Will Troy Jackson run 3 to 6 points behind Hannah Pingree?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 65¢ · $647 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$647.48
$17.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $350.51 | $340.02 | -$3.58 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.8¢ | $288.4 | $256.71 | -$31.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $54.72 | $83.31 | +$28.09 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $269.93 | $156.33 | +$40.75 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $56.94 | $80.64 | +$74.17 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.2¢ | $73.36 | $75.7 | -$33.42 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $69.41 | $63.86 | -$5.55 | 20% 2590-10277 (12867) |
 G.HchenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $26 | $48 | +$22 | 56% 362-280 (642) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $31.83 | $33.27 | +$1.44 | 27% 6849-18792 (25641) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $6.28 | $6 | -$0.28 | 33% 456-938 (1394) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$350.51
Value
$340.02
PnL
-$3.58
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Both legs:
Invested
$269.93
Value
$156.33
PnL
+$40.75
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$69.41
Value
$63.86
PnL
-$5.55
Record
20%
2590-10277 (12867)
G.HchenCTR<$100Invested
$26
Value
$48
PnL
+$22
Record
56%
362-280 (642)
Invested
$31.83
Value
$33.27
PnL
+$1.44
Record
27%
6849-18792 (25641)
Invested
$6.28
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.28
Record
33%
456-938 (1394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.