Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,200,000 and 4,350,000?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 77¢ · $295 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$295.28
$264.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $37.98 | $173.96 | +$114.83 | 35% 16955-31322 (48277) |
 musicenthusiastCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $50.95 | $50.95 | +$0 | 58% 352-256 (608) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.5¢ | $111.52 | $35.36 | -$17.8 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $14.8 | $15.93 | +$1.13 | 17% 1026-4959 (5985) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Noavg 75.1¢ | $435.99 | $15.02 | +$166.18 | 58% 55-40 (95) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $3.79 | $4.06 | +$0.27 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
Invested
$37.98
Value
$173.96
PnL
+$114.83
Record
35%
16955-31322 (48277)
musicenthusiastCTR<$100Invested
$50.95
Value
$50.95
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
352-256 (608)
IstarothInvested
$111.52
Value
$35.36
PnL
-$17.8
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$15.93
PnL
+$1.13
Record
17%
1026-4959 (5985)
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$435.99
Value
$15.02
PnL
+$166.18
Record
58%
55-40 (95)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$4.06
PnL
+$0.27
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.