Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 500,000 and 550,000?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 38¢ · $649 held · ends Nov 4

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$649.47

Combined PnL

$186.15

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 38¢

+50% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$380.43

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL+$173.92

No1 trader

Total Value$61.18

Total Shares76

Combined PnL+$12.23

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$213.02	$207.86	-$1.63	21% 300-1140 (1440)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.5¢	$127.91	$128.87	+$0.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.1¢	$81.2	$78.99	-$2.4
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 35.8¢	$139.55	$192.23	+$52.69	36% 15323-27397 (42720)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$66.96	$188.2	+$121.24	56% 46-36 (82)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$48.95	$61.18	+$12.23	60% 3323-2226 (5549)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$213.02

Value

$207.86

PnL

-$1.63

Record

21%

300-1140 (1440)

Both legs:

Invested

$139.55

Value

$192.23

PnL

+$52.69

Record

36%

15323-27397 (42720)

EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR

Yes

Invested

$66.96

Value

$188.2

PnL

+$121.24

Record

56%

46-36 (82)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$48.95

Value

$61.18

PnL

+$12.23

Record

60%

3323-2226 (5549)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.0%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$150.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

250.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.