Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 33¢ · $499 held · ends Nov 4

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$499.13

Combined PnL

$12.13

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 33¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$224.94

Total Shares336

Combined PnL+$29.12

Yes2 traders

Total Value$274.18

Total Shares831

Combined PnL-$16.98

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EsperanzasDESTROYER	Noavg 56.8¢	$166.13	$195.8	+$29.67	56% 44-35 (79)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$144.38	$143.96	-$9.66	53% 1087-974 (2061)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 31.1¢	$137.54	$130.22	-$7.32	36% 14550-25983 (40533)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$29.7	$29.14	-$0.56	18% 3764-16675 (20439)

EsperanzasDESTROYER

Invested

$166.13

Value

$195.8

PnL

+$29.67

Record

56%

44-35 (79)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.38

Value

$143.96

PnL

-$9.66

Record

53%

1087-974 (2061)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.54

Value

$130.22

PnL

-$7.32

Record

36%

14550-25983 (40533)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.14

PnL

-$0.56

Record

18%

3764-16675 (20439)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.9%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$186.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

286.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.