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NoNoYesYesYesYes
RayGuyCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be 350,000 or more?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
7
No 67%
Total Value
$111.66
Combined PnL
-$2.49
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$111.66
Total Shares112
Combined PnL+$0.36
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$2.84
No — 29%Yes — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anciano<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $91.56 | $91.66 | +$0.1 | — |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $19.74 | $20 | +$0.26 | 40% 3308-4936 (8244) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $8.55 | — | -$2.82 | 30% 2984-7093 (10077) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 20% 99-387 (486) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 19% 114-491 (605) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 29% 911-2193 (3104) |
RayGuyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | — | -$0.02 | — 0-1 (1) |
AN
anciano<$100Invested
$91.56
Value
$91.66
PnL
+$0.1
Record
—
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$19.74
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.26
Record
40%
3308-4936 (8244)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$8.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
30%
2984-7093 (10077)
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
99-387 (486)
SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
114-491 (605)
MI
mildwindow27CTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
911-2193 (3104)
RayGuyCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
0-1 (1)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xdfeb5198...454555
Slug
will-total-votes-cast-in-the-2026-midterm-election-for-governor-of-vermont-be-350000-or-more