Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

18 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (95%) · No at 89¢ · $5K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 95%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$425.27

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 89¢

+4% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 19 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,199

Combined PnL+$442.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$62.5

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$17.5

No — 95%Yes — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

720h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV aviato	Noavg 87¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$64.55	84% 2509-489 (2998)
balthazar	Noavg 85.3¢	$869.72	$907.68	+$37.96	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 85.7¢	$854.42	$818.5	+$28.6	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
Hyperlong	Noavg 83¢	$272.2	$327.32	+$248.57	46% 299-349 (648)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 79¢	$233.15	$271.4	+$38.25	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 87.3¢	$164.06	$167.32	+$3.26	51% 3690-3541 (7231)
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$80.39	$80.55	+$0.16	48% 1884-2013 (3897)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 74¢	$61.41	$76.35	+$14.94	43% 3133-4188 (7321)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 86¢	$72.14	$74.65	+$2.52	50% 659-658 (1317)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$34.6	$73.6	+$3	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$75	$62.5	-$17.5	41% 2019-2860 (4879)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$40.8	$46	+$5.2	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$24.47	$24.37	-$0.1	50% 9800-9775 (19575)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73¢	$43.07	$11.51	-$6.6	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 81¢	$7.61	$8.65	+$1.03	73% 12875-4800 (17675)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 87¢	$6.19	$6.33	+$0.14	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 74¢	$4.06	$5.04	+$0.99	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.6	+$0.25	77% 12312-3779 (16091)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.47	$4.52	+$0.05	39% 1087-1679 (2766)

aviato

Invested

$2,000.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$64.55

Record

84%

2509-489 (2998)

balthazar

Invested

$869.72

Value

$907.68

PnL

+$37.96

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$854.42

Value

$818.5

PnL

+$28.6

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

Hyperlong

Invested

$272.2

Value

$327.32

PnL

+$248.57

Record

46%

299-349 (648)

smallreceipt

Invested

$233.15

Value

$271.4

PnL

+$38.25

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

haveagoodday

Invested

$164.06

Value

$167.32

PnL

+$3.26

Record

51%

3690-3541 (7231)

ABC12345654321<$100

Invested

$80.39

Value

$80.55

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

1884-2013 (3897)

merod<$100

Invested

$61.41

Value

$76.35

PnL

+$14.94

Record

43%

3133-4188 (7321)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$72.14

Value

$74.65

PnL

+$2.52

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.6

Value

$73.6

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

41%

2019-2860 (4879)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$46

PnL

+$5.2

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.47

Value

$24.37

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

9800-9775 (19575)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.07

Value

$11.51

PnL

-$6.6

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$7.61

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$1.03

Record

73%

12875-4800 (17675)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

korda77<$100

Invested

$4.06

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.99

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

77%

12312-3779 (16091)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 19 top traders (95%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

720h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.