Will Tom Cotton be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $283 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$283.44
$5.6
92.6¢ → 96.9¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 91.9¢ | $138.78 | $142.64 | +$3.86 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $47.65 | $47.25 | -$0.4 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $35.74 | $37.8 | +$2.06 | 39% 1043-1627 (2670) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $28.35 | $28.35 | +$0 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $23.65 | $23.63 | -$0.02 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $3.68 | $3.78 | +$0.1 | — 8-9 (17) |
Invested
$138.78
Value
$142.64
PnL
+$3.86
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$47.65
Value
$47.25
PnL
-$0.4
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$35.74
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$2.06
Record
39%
1043-1627 (2670)
Invested
$28.35
Value
$28.35
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$23.65
Value
$23.63
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$3.68
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.1
Record
—
8-9 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.