Will Toluca win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$28.43
83.5¢ → 82.1¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Noavg 83.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$19.16 | — 0-2 (2) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $261.08 | $263.2 | +$2.11 | 39% 1049-1630 (2679) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $159.43 | $162.96 | +$3.53 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82.7¢ | $101.65 | $100.24 | -$1.41 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 85¢ | $175.02 | $167.75 | -$7.27 | 41% 3041-4429 (7470) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 82.5¢ | $165 | $163 | -$2 | 60% 18-12 (30) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $74.95 | $74.95 | +$0 | 53% 5388-4864 (10252) |
thefakenickInvested
$1,479.78
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$19.16
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$261.08
Value
$263.2
PnL
+$2.11
Record
39%
1049-1630 (2679)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.02
Value
$167.75
PnL
-$7.27
Record
41%
3041-4429 (7470)
HaradwaithInvested
$165
Value
$163
PnL
-$2
Record
60%
18-12 (30)
Invested
$74.95
Value
$74.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5388-4864 (10252)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.