Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $361 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$361.4
$20.45
96.4¢ → 97.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 11122 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $168.64 | $168.9 | +$0.26 | 44% 1396-1806 (3202) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $141.03 | $140.57 | -$0.46 | 53% 320-284 (604) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $50.68 | $31.14 | +$30.45 | 35% 14652-26739 (41391) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | $20 | $11.17 | -$9.76 | 57% 1101-821 (1922) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $9.73 | $9.63 | -$0.04 | 61% 145-94 (239) |
Invested
$168.64
Value
$168.9
PnL
+$0.26
Record
44%
1396-1806 (3202)
Invested
$141.03
Value
$140.57
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
320-284 (604)
Invested
$50.68
Value
$31.14
PnL
+$30.45
Record
35%
14652-26739 (41391)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$11.17
PnL
-$9.76
Record
57%
1101-821 (1922)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$9.63
PnL
-$0.04
Record
61%
145-94 (239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.