Will Together win 17-19 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $774 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$773.56
$7.78
76.6¢ → 76.4¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 78.4¢ | $408.45 | $316.61 | -$12.57 | 73% 2677-968 (3645) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 72.9¢ | $248.02 | $259.76 | +$11.74 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.3¢ | $131.95 | $130.99 | -$0.96 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $76.93 | $66.21 | +$9.57 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
viniiInvested
$408.45
Value
$316.61
PnL
-$12.57
Record
73%
2677-968 (3645)
Invested
$248.02
Value
$259.76
PnL
+$11.74
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
Invested
$131.95
Value
$130.99
PnL
-$0.96
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
Invested
$76.93
Value
$66.21
PnL
+$9.57
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.