Will Together be in the next Israeli government?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$9.27
45.7¢ → 55.5¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 45¢ | $598.9 | $552.32 | -$46.58 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 46.9¢ | $541.24 | $486 | +$34.76 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.5¢ | $205.67 | $198.3 | -$2.53 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.1¢ | $85.47 | $108.07 | +$22.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.5¢ | $114.12 | $90.23 | -$25.15 | |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $104.09 | $110.72 | +$6.62 | 42% 5192-7111 (12303) |
 crypto-basenji<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $29.04 | $27.39 | -$1.65 | 38% 167-275 (442) |
KI KiruaTrading<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $19.6 | $20 | +$0.4 | 56% 255-197 (452) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $18.56 | $15.74 | -$2.82 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
viniiInvested
$598.9
Value
$552.32
PnL
-$46.58
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
Invested
$541.24
Value
$486
PnL
+$34.76
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$205.67
Value
$198.3
PnL
-$2.53
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.09
Value
$110.72
PnL
+$6.62
Record
42%
5192-7111 (12303)
crypto-basenji<$100Invested
$29.04
Value
$27.39
PnL
-$1.65
Record
38%
167-275 (442)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
255-197 (452)
Invested
$18.56
Value
$15.74
PnL
-$2.82
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.