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NoYesYes
FrozenParasite<$100No
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Toby Thorpe win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 33%
Total Value
$577.5
Combined PnL
$0.94
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$572.4
Total Shares572
Combined PnL+$74.69
Yes3 traders
Total Value$5.1
Total Shares604
Combined PnL-$73.75
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 81.9¢ | $478.56 | $572.4 | +$74.69 | 53% 1116-998 (2114) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $28 | $5.1 | -$22.9 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.71 | — | -$0.71 | 77% 11162-3417 (14579) |
FrozenParasite<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 55% 449-366 (815) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $60 | — | -$50.13 | 56% 15274-11804 (27078) |
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderInvested
$478.56
Value
$572.4
PnL
+$74.69
Record
53%
1116-998 (2114)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
$28
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$22.9
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
—
PnL
-$0.71
Record
77%
11162-3417 (14579)
FrozenParasite<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
449-366 (815)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$60
Value
—
PnL
-$50.13
Record
56%
15274-11804 (27078)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x00bbbc15...c8cf16
Slug
will-toby-thorpe-win-the-2026-huon-valley-mayoral-election