Will Tiny Computers be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$55.5
-$7.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $27.32 | $27.32 | +$0 | 35% 2930-5331 (8261) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $13.85 | $13.86 | +$0.01 | 28% 833-2134 (2967) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.13 | $12.14 | +$0.01 | 39% 1401-2153 (3554) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $8.67 | $1.77 | -$6.9 | 48% 11-12 (23) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $1.22 | $0.22 | -$1 | 41% 3022-4424 (7446) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.22 | $0.2 | -$0.02 | 15% 13-72 (85) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$27.32
Value
$27.32
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2930-5331 (8261)
Invested
$13.85
Value
$13.86
PnL
+$0.01
Record
28%
833-2134 (2967)
Invested
$12.13
Value
$12.14
PnL
+$0.01
Record
39%
1401-2153 (3554)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$8.67
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$6.9
Record
48%
11-12 (23)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$1
Record
41%
3022-4424 (7446)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.02
Record
15%
13-72 (85)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.