Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Thriller - Michael Jackson" be the #2 US song this week?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 9.0¢ · $203 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$202.9
-$293.7
32.9¢ → 9¢
-73% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $296.08 | $81.06 | -$215.02 | 61% 358-226 (584) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $87.84 | $35 | -$60.09 | 76% 600-191 (791) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $19.95 | $31.73 | +$11.78 | 36% 1961-3488 (5449) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $82.66 | $29.85 | +$5.66 | 35% 17316-32015 (49331) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $75.42 | $20.74 | -$37.22 | 16% 417-2210 (2627) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $3.34 | $4.53 | +$1.2 | 51% 462-437 (899) |
Invested
$296.08
Value
$81.06
PnL
-$215.02
Record
61%
358-226 (584)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100Invested
$87.84
Value
$35
PnL
-$60.09
Record
76%
600-191 (791)
Invested
$19.95
Value
$31.73
PnL
+$11.78
Record
36%
1961-3488 (5449)
Invested
$82.66
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$5.66
Record
35%
17316-32015 (49331)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$75.42
Value
$20.74
PnL
-$37.22
Record
16%
417-2210 (2627)
Invested
$3.34
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$1.2
Record
51%
462-437 (899)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.