Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$14.87
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
385h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $905.6 | $827.83 | +$48.23 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79¢ | $619.06 | $599.74 | -$55.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $165.54 | $228.09 | +$104.06 | |
 0xdc3E831cad<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $90.85 | $94.3 | +$3.45 | 50% 1788-1821 (3609) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $79.97 | $92.25 | +$14.49 | 32% 4312-9237 (13549) |
 Debosnys<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $35.4 | $32.8 | -$4.4 | 89% 1820-224 (2044) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $9.81 | $11.36 | +$1.55 | 43% 132-177 (309) |
PA pakoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $5 | $5.43 | -$0.22 | 66% 248-130 (378) |
Invested
$905.6
Value
$827.83
PnL
+$48.23
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
Both legs:
0xdc3E831cad<$100Invested
$90.85
Value
$94.3
PnL
+$3.45
Record
50%
1788-1821 (3609)
Invested
$79.97
Value
$92.25
PnL
+$14.49
Record
32%
4312-9237 (13549)
Debosnys<$100Invested
$35.4
Value
$32.8
PnL
-$4.4
Record
89%
1820-224 (2044)
Invested
$9.81
Value
$11.36
PnL
+$1.55
Record
43%
132-177 (309)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.43
PnL
-$0.22
Record
66%
248-130 (378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.