Will Thomas Kurian be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $980 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$979.76

Combined PnL

$878.51

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 99.6¢

+83% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$846.22

Total Shares1,692

Combined PnL+$865.52

No3 traders

Total Value$133.32

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$12.99

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.81	$355.5	+$347.62	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$350.21	+$343.66	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$101.36	$123.82	+$22.46	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.44	$77	+$75.56	43% 16-21 (37)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.36	$51	+$50.64	12% 34-257 (291)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$45.62	$9	+$44.6	19% 815-3564 (4379)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$12.97	$6.5	-$6.47	49% 488-517 (1005)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$3.5	+$3.43	35% 512-942 (1454)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.99	$3	-$2.99	63% 445-264 (709)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$355.5

PnL

+$347.62

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$350.21

PnL

+$343.66

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$101.36

Value

$123.82

PnL

+$22.46

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$77

PnL

+$75.56

Record

43%

16-21 (37)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$51

PnL

+$50.64

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.62

Value

PnL

+$44.6

Record

19%

815-3564 (4379)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.97

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$6.47

Record

49%

488-517 (1005)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$3.43

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

PnL

-$2.99

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.