Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Thinky have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $251 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$251.1

Combined PnL

-$26.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$250.75

Total Shares251

Combined PnL+$1.1

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares695

Combined PnL-$27.84

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$89.51	$90.91	+$1.4	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.91	$84.92	+$0	27% 197-540 (737)
iutwpfal<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$79.25	$44.96	-$0.3	— 10-4 (14)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	27% 973-2599 (3572)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.6	$0.23	-$12.37	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$4.57	$0.08	-$4.49	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.5	$0.01	-$0.49	30% 108-251 (359)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.01	-$0.56	8% 9-109 (118)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$17.84	$0.01	-$8.83	18% 838-3799 (4637)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$30.26	$0	-$1.1	29% 3079-7466 (10545)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$89.51

Value

$90.91

PnL

+$1.4

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$84.91

Value

$84.92

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

iutwpfal<$100

Invested

$79.25

Value

$44.96

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

10-4 (14)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.6

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$12.37

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.57

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.49

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.49

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.56

Record

9-109 (118)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.84

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.83

Record

18%

838-3799 (4637)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.26

Value

PnL

-$1.1

Record

29%

3079-7466 (10545)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.