Will Thinky be the #2 AI lab at the end of January 2027?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $97 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$96.73
-$12.12
98.4¢ → 99.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $4.26 | $29.89 | +$25.63 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19.56 | $20 | +$0.44 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $32.94 | $16.91 | -$16.03 | 60% 7190-4757 (11947) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $18.79 | $9.6 | -$9.19 | 42% 6041-8253 (14294) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.99 | $6.96 | -$0.03 | 50% 7869-7957 (15826) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11.01 | $5.63 | -$5.38 | 72% 12221-4831 (17052) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $15.73 | $5.1 | -$5.07 | 17% 402-2020 (2422) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.13 | $2.64 | -$2.49 | 49% 7501-7830 (15331) |
Invested
$4.26
Value
$29.89
PnL
+$25.63
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
2B9S<$100Invested
$19.56
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.44
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
Invested
$32.94
Value
$16.91
PnL
-$16.03
Record
60%
7190-4757 (11947)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$9.19
Record
42%
6041-8253 (14294)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$6.96
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
7869-7957 (15826)
Invested
$11.01
Value
$5.63
PnL
-$5.38
Record
72%
12221-4831 (17052)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$15.73
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$5.07
Record
17%
402-2020 (2422)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$2.49
Record
49%
7501-7830 (15331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.