Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be no next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) release by November 30, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 32¢ · $888 held · ends Dec 1
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$888.24
-$178.7
52.3¢ → 32¢
-39% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ifyoulovemeCTR | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $466.66 | $449.81 | -$57.33 | 51% 247-234 (481) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $427.77 | $402.43 | -$122.72 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $36 | +$1.35 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.