Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 28, 2027

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Wed, Apr 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$4.87

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 55¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$198.11

Total Shares357

Combined PnL+$4.39

No5 traders

Total Value$123.06

Total Shares286

Combined PnL+$0.48

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

156h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 52.7¢	$802.25	$763.98	-$31.81	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.7¢	$412.79	$434.88	+$21.82
└ No leg	Noavg 48.8¢	$382.56	$329.1	-$53.63
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$452.29	$267.17	+$18.73	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.6¢	$167.53	$161.23	+$6.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.6¢	$94.69	$105.94	+$12.07
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 51.1¢	$101.47	$110.2	+$4.76	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 56.5¢	$226	$87.91	-$0.38	56% 15814-12510 (28324)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$65.9	$67.19	+$1.29	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$34.02	$24.24	-$1.09	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$13.2	$12.6	-$0.6	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 38.6¢	$10.61	$11.56	+$0.94	52% 242-226 (468)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$7.54	$7.48	-$0.07	50% 634-639 (1273)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$802.25

Value

$763.98

PnL

-$31.81

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

Yes$412.7952.7¢+$21.82

No$382.5648.8¢-$53.63

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$452.29

Value

$267.17

PnL

+$18.73

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$167.5343.6¢+$6.67

Yes$94.6949.6¢+$12.07

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$101.47

Value

$110.2

PnL

+$4.76

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$226

Value

$87.91

PnL

-$0.38

Record

56%

15814-12510 (28324)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$65.9

Value

$67.19

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$34.02

Value

$24.24

PnL

-$1.09

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$10.61

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$0.94

Record

52%

242-226 (468)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$7.54

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

156h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.