Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $890 held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$890.42

Combined PnL

-$45.8

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 99.8¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$886.39

Total Shares886

Combined PnL+$68.73

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.03

Total Shares1,007

Combined PnL-$114.53

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

706h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.1¢	$334.15	$259.29	+$14.27	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
DO donthackme	Noavg 83¢	$166.25	$200.18	+$33.65	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
AN anoin123	Noavg 90.8¢	$122.13	$134.29	+$12.16	45% 506-621 (1127)
Istaroth	Noavg 94.7¢	$115.65	$111.22	-$2.64	15% 459-2699 (3158)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 96¢	$105.37	$109.54	+$4.17	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$55.14	$61.88	+$6.74	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96¢	$9.67	$9.98	+$0.38	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$98.45	$2.61	-$73.82	56% 999-791 (1790)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.69	$0.51	-$11.43	44% 2186-2829 (5015)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$3.1	$0.38	-$2.72	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.36	$0.36	-$17.61	50% 9754-9733 (19487)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$7.81	$0.14	-$7.67	42% 5366-7297 (12663)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.03	$0.02	-$1.01	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.26	29% 2414-5820 (8234)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$334.15

Value

$259.29

PnL

+$14.27

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

donthackme

Invested

$166.25

Value

$200.18

PnL

+$33.65

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

anoin123

Invested

$122.13

Value

$134.29

PnL

+$12.16

Record

45%

506-621 (1127)

Istaroth

Invested

$115.65

Value

$111.22

PnL

-$2.64

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$105.37

Value

$109.54

PnL

+$4.17

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$55.14

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$6.74

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.67

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.45

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$73.82

Record

56%

999-791 (1790)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.69

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$11.43

Record

44%

2186-2829 (5015)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$2.72

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$17.61

Record

50%

9754-9733 (19487)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.67

Record

42%

5366-7297 (12663)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.01

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.26

Record

29%

2414-5820 (8234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

706h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.