Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $255 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$255.14

Combined PnL

-$76.2

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$253.99

Total Shares254

Combined PnL+$0.75

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.15

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$76.95

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$77.82	$78.05	+$0.23	40% 3363-5001 (8364)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$49.69	$49.95	+$0.29	26% 909-2537 (3446)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$44.9	$44.96	+$0.05	28% 987-2588 (3575)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.82	$39.96	+$0.14	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.94	$29.98	+$0.04	29% 126-306 (432)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.1	$11.1	-$0	43% 2587-3438 (6025)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$7.38	$0.96	-$6.42	13% 51-350 (401)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$22.37	$0.11	-$22.16	38% 1423-2322 (3745)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$281.1	$0.06	-$47.83	46% 4888-5757 (10645)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.57	$0.01	-$0.55	40% 1508-2235 (3743)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$77.82

Value

$78.05

PnL

+$0.23

Record

40%

3363-5001 (8364)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$49.69

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.29

Record

26%

909-2537 (3446)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$44.9

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

987-2588 (3575)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.82

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

126-306 (432)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

2587-3438 (6025)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$6.42

Record

13%

51-350 (401)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.37

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$22.16

Record

38%

1423-2322 (3745)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.1

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$47.83

Record

46%

4888-5757 (10645)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.55

Record

40%

1508-2235 (3743)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.