Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$148.55

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 73.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,265

Combined PnL+$122.63

Yes4 traders

Total Value$68.23

Total Shares271

Combined PnL+$25.91

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 68.2¢	$1.3K	$992.82	+$82.48	35% 17512-32753 (50265)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$60.28	$60.48	+$0.38	16% 427-2295 (2722)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$58.04	$57.76	-$0.28	50% 9462-9451 (18913)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$22.32	$53.45	+$31.13	49% 1246-1273 (2519)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 81¢	$70.78	$51.91	+$40.4	20% 2455-9831 (12286)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$13.1	$9.51	-$3.59	43% 2142-2793 (4935)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$6.8	$5	-$1.8	27% 6631-18348 (24979)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 75¢	$39.35	$3.4	-$0.35	25% 1627-4961 (6588)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.08	$0.27	+$0.17	48% 102-110 (212)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,264.22

Value

$992.82

PnL

+$82.48

Record

35%

17512-32753 (50265)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$60.28

Value

$60.48

PnL

+$0.38

Record

16%

427-2295 (2722)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$58.04

Value

$57.76

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

9462-9451 (18913)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.32

Value

$53.45

PnL

+$31.13

Record

49%

1246-1273 (2519)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$70.78

Value

$51.91

PnL

+$40.4

Record

20%

2455-9831 (12286)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.1

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$3.59

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.8

Value

PnL

-$1.8

Record

27%

6631-18348 (24979)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$39.35

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.35

Record

25%

1627-4961 (6588)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.