Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$59.82

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 97.4¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,503

Combined PnL+$23.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$224.07

Total Shares8,456

Combined PnL-$83.28

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

168h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 95.5¢	$394.11	$408.01	+$13.9	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.5¢	$324.62	$329.21	+$4.59	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 96.6¢	$307.15	$314.3	+$7.16	20% 61-241 (302)
AZ AzariahJubyCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$305.21	$221.98	-$83.23	— 0-8 (8)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.8¢	$196.75	$193.91	-$2.84	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
balthazar	Noavg 98.9¢	$158.24	$155.84	-$2.4	51% 4598-4501 (9099)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$27.33	$29.67	+$2.34	27% 921-2513 (3434)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.67	+$0.3	14% 55-329 (384)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$19.91	$20.32	+$0.41	48% 307-339 (646)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.14	$2.1	-$0.05	41% 3094-4461 (7555)

Lucerys

Invested

$394.11

Value

$408.01

PnL

+$13.9

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

cigarettes

Invested

$324.62

Value

$329.21

PnL

+$4.59

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

quietparcel

Invested

$307.15

Value

$314.3

PnL

+$7.16

Record

20%

61-241 (302)

AzariahJubyCTR

Yes

Invested

$305.21

Value

$221.98

PnL

-$83.23

Record

—

0-8 (8)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$196.75

Value

$193.91

PnL

-$2.84

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

balthazar

Invested

$158.24

Value

$155.84

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

4598-4501 (9099)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$27.33

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$2.34

Record

27%

921-2513 (3434)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$0.3

Record

14%

55-329 (384)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.91

Value

$20.32

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

3094-4461 (7555)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

168h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.