Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be between 0 and 4 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on November 30?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 24¢ · $138 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$137.96
-$20.5
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 70.5¢ | $68.97 | $68 | -$0.97 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.2¢ | $29.37 | $26 | -$3.37 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.5¢ | $25.36 | $15.02 | -$10.34 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.2¢ | $13.1 | $12 | -$1.1 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $8.91 | $6.9 | -$2.01 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $7 | $4.8 | -$2.2 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $5 | $4.61 | -$0.38 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $0.76 | $0.63 | -$0.13 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
Invested
$68.97
Value
$68
PnL
-$0.97
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$26
PnL
-$3.37
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$15.02
PnL
-$10.34
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$13.1
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.1
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$2.01
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$7
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$2.2
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.61
PnL
-$0.38
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.