Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 7.6¢ · $39 held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$38.65
-$257.72
80.2¢ → 7.6¢
-90% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Yesavg 96.3¢ | $12.04 | $11.54 | -$0.49 | 42% 352-482 (834) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $99.42 | $8.1 | -$91.31 | 23% 84-282 (366) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $98.87 | $7.91 | -$90.96 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $81.99 | $6.5 | -$75.49 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.7¢ | $4.05 | $4.59 | +$0.54 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
Invested
$12.04
Value
$11.54
PnL
-$0.49
Record
42%
352-482 (834)
Invested
$99.42
Value
$8.1
PnL
-$91.31
Record
23%
84-282 (366)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$98.87
Value
$7.91
PnL
-$90.96
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
Invested
$81.99
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$75.49
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$4.05
Value
$4.59
PnL
+$0.54
Record
41%
3104-4461 (7565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.