Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $214 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$214.36
$125.97
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 3.6¢ | $3.76 | $100.32 | +$96.56 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 3.1¢ | $1.38 | $43.65 | +$42.27 | 30% 2678-6206 (8884) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 3.6¢ | $1.08 | $29.1 | +$28.02 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $29.1 | +$0.3 | 25% 96-283 (379) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $53.37 | $12.2 | -$41.18 | 41% 3107-4462 (7569) |
balthazarInvested
$3.76
Value
$100.32
PnL
+$96.56
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$43.65
PnL
+$42.27
Record
30%
2678-6206 (8884)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$29.1
PnL
+$28.02
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$29.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
25%
96-283 (379)
Invested
$53.37
Value
$12.2
PnL
-$41.18
Record
41%
3107-4462 (7569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.