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Gemini456CTR<$100YesYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$17.6
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares277
Combined PnL-$17.6
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 80%No — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gemini456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 73% 263-98 (361) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $14.6 | — | -$14.6 | 56% 248-193 (441) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2411-2198 (4609) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 35% 273-515 (788) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
Gemini456CTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
73%
263-98 (361)
KI
KiruaTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.6
Value
—
PnL
-$14.6
Record
56%
248-193 (441)
ME
merod<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2411-2198 (4609)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
273-515 (788)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa7f4abb9...8ca326
Slug
will-there-be-6-earthquakes-of-5pt5-or-above-magnitude-worldwide-oct19-25