Will there be 4 or more US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $175 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$174.75
-$24.94
99.5¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $89.58 | $89.46 | -$0.12 | 26% 119-337 (456) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $50.73 | $50.32 | -$0.41 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.82 | -$0.12 | 26% 872-2506 (3378) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $4.77 | $4.95 | +$0.18 | 40% 3254-4905 (8159) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $59.5 | $0.1 | -$19.37 | 47% 4825-5517 (10342) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.93 | $0.05 | -$0.88 | 48% 127-137 (264) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $4 | $0.04 | -$3.96 | 38% 66-109 (175) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $0.27 | $0 | -$0.27 | 25% 93-281 (374) |
Invested
$89.58
Value
$89.46
PnL
-$0.12
Record
26%
119-337 (456)
Invested
$50.73
Value
$50.32
PnL
-$0.41
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.12
Record
26%
872-2506 (3378)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.18
Record
40%
3254-4905 (8159)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$59.5
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$19.37
Record
47%
4825-5517 (10342)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.88
Record
48%
127-137 (264)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$3.96
Record
38%
66-109 (175)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.27
Record
25%
93-281 (374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.