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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes

Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?

Resolved Yes. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

12

Yes 50%

Total Value

$419.47

Combined PnL

$468.25

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$419.47

Total Shares419

Combined PnL+$491.78

No5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$23.53

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Yesavg 43¢	$30.32	$222.01	+$191.69	67% 4139-2004 (6143)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 31.2¢	$365.88	$197.46	+$300.09	36% 15094-27222 (42316)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Noavg 66.1¢	$107.81	—	-$23.48	42% 142-198 (340)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 0.2¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	—	—	+$0	61% 20834-13247 (34081)
AN anoin123<$100	Yesavg 63¢	—	—	+$0	47% 449-515 (964)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	—	—	+$0	40% 393-591 (984)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	—	—	+$0	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 40.1¢	—	—	+$0	32% 4361-9392 (13753)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Yesavg 35¢	—	—	+$0	36% 2033-3638 (5671)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Noavg 80¢	—	—	+$0	56% 15268-11796 (27064)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	—	—	+$0	23% 288-962 (1250)

Invested

$30.32

Value

$222.01

PnL

+$191.69

Record

67%

4139-2004 (6143)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$365.88

Value

$197.46

PnL

+$300.09

Record

36%

15094-27222 (42316)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Invested

$107.81

Value

—

PnL

-$23.48

Record

42%

142-198 (340)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

20834-13247 (34081)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

449-515 (964)

zerone777CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

393-591 (984)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

4361-9392 (13753)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

2033-3638 (5671)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15268-11796 (27064)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2db3c946...b69595

Slug

will-there-be-4-or-more-north-korea-tests-in-october-2026

Traders in this Market

Car

Yes — $222.01

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $197.46

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

No — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

balthazar

No — $0

anoin123

Yes — $0

zerone777

No — $0

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes — $0

HerrieDavis

Yes — $0

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