Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in November 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 32¢ · $386 held · ends Dec 1

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$385.71

Combined PnL

-$26.33

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$62.04

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$27.13

Yes1 trader

Total Value$21.2

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.8

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$254.27	$231.91	-$4.42	15% 435-2472 (2907)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.7¢	$68.73	$157.5	+$88.39
└ No leg	Noavg 68.7¢	$164.86	$74.41	-$92.81
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$177.25	$70.56	+$29.58	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
└ No leg	Noavg 46.8¢	$67.42	$46.1	-$16.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.7¢	$9.62	$24.45	+$46.53
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$61	$31.02	-$29.98	56% 15706-12366 (28072)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$40.4	$21.2	+$0.8	25% 1654-5034 (6688)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$9.3	$9.3	+$0	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$8.4	$9.3	+$0.9	49% 8636-9158 (17794)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.6	$6.2	+$0.6	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$3.29	$4.25	+$0.96	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$1.58	$1.96	+$0.38	73% 13591-5101 (18692)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$254.27

Value

$231.91

PnL

-$4.42

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

Both legs:

Yes$68.7332.7¢+$88.39

No$164.8668.7¢-$92.81

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$177.25

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$29.58

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Both legs:

No$67.4246.8¢-$16.95

Yes$9.6226.7¢+$46.53

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

$61

Value

$31.02

PnL

-$29.98

Record

56%

15706-12366 (28072)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.4

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$0.8

Record

25%

1654-5034 (6688)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

8636-9158 (17794)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$3.29

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.96

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.38

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.