Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 58¢ · $777 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$777.38
$254.97
73.7¢ → 58¢
-21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
464h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MEPPCTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $164.52 | $417.28 | +$252.76 | 64% 640-358 (998) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73.5¢ | $172.6 | $160.17 | -$12.43 | 34% 19419-36966 (56385) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 74.4¢ | $136.18 | $113.56 | -$22.62 | 53% 8619-7695 (16314) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $41.96 | $76.87 | +$34.91 | 65% 622-342 (964) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.77 | $5.89 | +$2.19 | 26% 7359-21131 (28490) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.3 | $3.48 | +$0.18 | 43% 10649-14114 (24763) |
MEPPCTRInvested
$164.52
Value
$417.28
PnL
+$252.76
Record
64%
640-358 (998)
Invested
$172.6
Value
$160.17
PnL
-$12.43
Record
34%
19419-36966 (56385)
Invested
$136.18
Value
$113.56
PnL
-$22.62
Record
53%
8619-7695 (16314)
Invested
$41.96
Value
$76.87
PnL
+$34.91
Record
65%
622-342 (964)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$2.19
Record
26%
7359-21131 (28490)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.48
PnL
+$0.18
Record
43%
10649-14114 (24763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.