Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $395 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$395.44
-$7.58
91.2¢ → 90.3¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 93¢ | $202 | $200 | -$2 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 89.1¢ | $161.77 | $134.93 | -$10.39 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $36.06 | $36.1 | +$0.04 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $8.61 | $13.38 | +$4.77 | 56% 258-201 (459) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $11.04 | $11.04 | +$0 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
IstarothInvested
$202
Value
$200
PnL
-$2
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Invested
$161.77
Value
$134.93
PnL
-$10.39
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$36.06
Value
$36.1
PnL
+$0.04
Record
18%
519-2318 (2837)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$13.38
PnL
+$4.77
Record
56%
258-201 (459)
Invested
$11.04
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.