Will there be 0 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $155 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$155.08

Combined PnL

-$23.51

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$154.63

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$19.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$4.35

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$50.32	$50.27	-$0.05	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.79	-$0.12	26% 119-337 (456)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.67	-$0.03	18% 83-367 (450)
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$119.63	$20	-$19.05	47% 4825-5517 (10342)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.88	$19.96	+$0.08	82% 31-7 (38)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$4.93	$4.95	+$0.02	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.5	$0.22	-$0.28	48% 127-137 (264)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$0.18	-$3.82	38% 66-109 (175)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.27	$0.01	-$0.26	25% 93-281 (374)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$50.32

Value

$50.27

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$0.12

Record

26%

119-337 (456)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.67

PnL

-$0.03

Record

18%

83-367 (450)

balthazar

Invested

$119.63

Value

$20

PnL

-$19.05

Record

47%

4825-5517 (10342)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.08

Record

82%

31-7 (38)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.02

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

127-137 (264)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.82

Record

38%

66-109 (175)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.26

Record

25%

93-281 (374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.