Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 57¢ · $806 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$806.36
$7.05
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiruaTrading | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $636.14 | $456.14 | +$48.13 | 56% 258-201 (459) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $178.42 | $175.72 | -$1.14 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53¢ | $93.05 | $100.16 | +$7.07 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.7¢ | $83.88 | $75.56 | -$8.2 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 53.9¢ | $206.99 | $165.91 | -$41.08 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $8.6 | $8.6 | +$0 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
Invested
$636.14
Value
$456.14
PnL
+$48.13
Record
56%
258-201 (459)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$178.42
Value
$175.72
PnL
-$1.14
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.99
Value
$165.91
PnL
-$41.08
Record
36%
15093-27221 (42314)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.6
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.