Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

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7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 20¢ · $199 held · ends Nov 30

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$198.54

Combined PnL

$29.27

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$125.37

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$0.44

No7 traders

Total Value$73.17

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$28.83

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

217h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$50.47	$51.08	+$0.6	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$50.09	$50.17	+$0.08	12% 21-155 (176)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$24.37	$24.13	-$0.24	3% 1-31 (32)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$14.4	$23.4	+$9	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$12.85	$21.45	+$8.6	17% 76-374 (450)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$9.08	$13.57	+$4.49	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$4.2	$6.83	+$2.63	26% 860-2483 (3343)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$1.6	$3.9	+$2.3	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$1.03	$2.88	+$1.85	27% 936-2514 (3450)
clazzy1CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1.17	$1.14	-$0.03	2% 1-41 (42)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.47

Value

$51.08

PnL

+$0.6

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.09

Value

$50.17

PnL

+$0.08

Record

12%

21-155 (176)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.13

PnL

-$0.24

Record

1-31 (32)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$9

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$12.85

Value

$21.45

PnL

+$8.6

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$9.08

Value

$13.57

PnL

+$4.49

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$6.83

PnL

+$2.63

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$2.3

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$1.03

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$1.85

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

clazzy1CTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.03

Record

1-41 (42)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

217h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.