Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 34¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 26

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Thu, Nov 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$409.47

Combined PnL

$69.41

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 33.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$184.9

Total Shares260

Combined PnL+$18.05

Yes5 traders

Total Value$224.57

Total Shares747

Combined PnL+$51.36

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

217h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2B9S	Noavg 56.8¢	$108.58	$125.75	+$17.17	15% 4979-29159 (34138)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$138.19	$109.79	-$28.39	47% 8642-9780 (18422)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$58.27	$59.15	+$0.88	38% 2887-4707 (7594)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 41.7¢	$667.43	$58.6	+$104.1	32% 21156-45383 (66539)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.3¢	$42.92	$28.07	-$14.37	— 6-7 (13)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$31.98	$22.3	-$9.68	50% 355-348 (703)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$6.1	$5.8	-$0.3	48% 5143-5667 (10810)

2B9S

Invested

$108.58

Value

$125.75

PnL

+$17.17

Record

15%

4979-29159 (34138)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.19

Value

$109.79

PnL

-$28.39

Record

47%

8642-9780 (18422)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$58.27

Value

$59.15

PnL

+$0.88

Record

38%

2887-4707 (7594)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$667.43

Value

$58.6

PnL

+$104.1

Record

32%

21156-45383 (66539)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.92

Value

$28.07

PnL

-$14.37

Record

—

6-7 (13)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.98

Value

$22.3

PnL

-$9.68

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

5143-5667 (10810)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

217h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.