Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 97¢ · $389 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$389.31

Combined PnL

$106.52

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 96.7¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$187.79

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$0.09

Yes5 traders

Total Value$201.52

Total Shares8,760

Combined PnL+$106.61

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97¢	$155.14	$154.64	-$0.5	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$77.59	$126.92	+$49.32	41% 2003-2843 (4846)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$46.37	$47.08	+$0.7	56% 266-208 (474)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$32.74	$33.15	+$0.41	39% 5309-8313 (13622)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$24.15	$25.36	+$1.21	39% 1303-2003 (3306)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.69	$2.1	+$55.42	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$0.78	$0.06	-$0.04	58% 18597-13721 (32318)

cigarettes

Invested

$155.14

Value

$154.64

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.59

Value

$126.92

PnL

+$49.32

Record

41%

2003-2843 (4846)

MenacingTurtleCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.37

Value

$47.08

PnL

+$0.7

Record

56%

266-208 (474)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$32.74

Value

$33.15

PnL

+$0.41

Record

39%

5309-8313 (13622)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.15

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$1.21

Record

39%

1303-2003 (3306)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.69

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$55.42

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.